------------------------------------------------
S2-01

 
GEOEFFECTIVENESS OF CMEs

 
R. SCHWENN

 
Max-Planck-Institut f\"ur Aeronomie, Lindau, Germany


 
E-mail: schwenn@linmpi.mpg.de


 
Among the several hundreds of CMEs observed by the LASCO
instruments onboard the SOHO spaceprobe a significant percentage was of
the ``halo" type, i.e., they were pointed towards or away from the
earth. Only additional evidence from further instruments observing the
disk appropriately, in particular EIT on SOHO, allows to predict which
halo might become geoeffective. We measured the lateral expansion
speeds of some tens of halo CMEs in order to infer their otherwise
unaccessible radial speeds. We compared these numbers with average
propagation speeds derived from the time difference between the CME and
the occurrence of their associated shock waves at 1 AU. It turned out
that the variance of expansion speeds close to the sun is significantly
higher than that of the average propagation speeds. The
geoeffectiveness of CMEs driving shocks towards the earth is extremely
variable. It all depends crucially on the topology of the magnetic
field topology within the shocked plasma and the succeeding driver
plasma. The location and orientation of the magnetized source region of
a CME might be used for more precise prediction of its probable
geoeffectiveness.


------------------------------------------------
S2-02

 
3D MHD MODELING OF THE SOLAR DRIVERS OF SPACE WEATHER

 
S. POEDTS (1), A. Csik (1,2), H. De Sterck (1,2), H.
Deconinck (2), and D. Roose (3)

 
(1) Centre for Plasma Astrophsyics, K.U.Leuven, Belgium

(2) Von Karman Institute, St. Genesius-Rode, Belgium

(3) Dept.~of Computer Science, K.U.Leuven, Belgium


 
E-mail: Stefaan.Poedts@wis.kuleuven.ac.be


 
Novel upwind residual distribution schemes have been
developed for solving the time dependent three-dimensional
magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations on unstructured grids. These
monotone multidimensional schemes are especially developed for space
weather applications, in particular for the simulation of the solar
wind and the initiation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
in the framework of a project investigating the physics of the solar
drivers of space weather.

The purpose of this project is to reveal the basic physics behind
the recurrent structure, heating and acceleration of the solar wind and
the formation and propagation of transients like CMEs and induced
shocks from their birth in the solar corona up to their arrival at the
Earth's magnetosphere. This should provide a basis for more reliable
science-based space weather predictions.

The novel numerical techniques are briefly discussed and their
advantages and superiority are demonstrated by means of the first
results of the above-mentioned project, viz. the simulation of the
solar wind, complex MHD shock interactions associated with fast CMEs,
and the solar wind interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere.


------------------------------------------------
S2-03

 
AN EMPIRICAL MODEL TO PREDICT THE ARRIVAL OF CORONAL
MASS EJECTIONS AT 1 AU

 
N. GOPALSWAMY (1), A. Lara (1), and M. L. Kaiser (2)

 
(1) NASA GSFC and The Catholic University of America

(2) NASA GSFC


 
E-mail: gopals@fugee.gsfc.nasa.gov


 
The interaction between coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
and the solar wind can be quantified as an effective acceleration
acting on the CMEs. Based on this acceleration, we obtain an empirical
model to predict the arrival of CMEs at 1 AU. We test this model using
past observations from Helios, P78-1, Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Solar
Maximum Missions. We also discuss the geoeffectiveness of the CMEs that
arrive at 1 AU.


------------------------------------------------
S2-04

 
PREDICTING BOW SHOCK AND MAGNETOPAUSE LOCATIONS DERIVED
FROM EMPIRICAL MODELS AND REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA

 
S. M. PETRINEC

 
Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, Palo Alto,
CA


 
E-mail: petrinec@spasci.com


 
Over the years many empirical models have been developed
to describe the average locations and shapes of the Earth's bow shock
and magnetopause. Several of these models are parameterized according
to the external conditions of the solar wind. Because these models are
comparatively simple, they can be calculated quickly and provide
reasonable though crude estimates of the shapes of the geophysical
boundaries. By describing the solar wind as a sequence of `fronts', one
can estimate several shapes of the geophysical boundaries at a given
moment of time. Assuming each boundary shape is most accurate at the
location of each `front', one can piece together boundary shapes, thus
providing shapes which coarsely represent the dynamics imposed by the
solar wind. Real-time solar wind observations taken far upstream of the
Earth are then used to predict boundary locations into the near future.
We describe the strengths and weaknesses of using such empirical models
in a dynamic manner to forecast the locations of the geophysical
boundaries, and how they are being used for the purposes of space
weather.


------------------------------------------------
S2-05

 
ON SPACE WEATHER ENERGY BUDGET

 
H. E. J. KOSKINEN (1,2), E. I. Kallio (2), E. J. Kallio
(2), and T. I. Pulkkinen (2)

 
(1) University of Helsinki, Department of Physics

(2) Finnish Meteorological Institute, Geophysical
Research


 
E-mail: Hannu.Koskinen@fmi.fi


 
Determination of the magnetospheric energy budget is a
difficult task because the energy input cannot be directly measured.
The input-rate is often parameterized in terms of Akasofu's epsilon
parameter, which is given as a function of upstream Poynting flux
toward the magnetosphere. The scaling of the parameter as the input
power was originally estimated by considering power of different energy
sinks within the magnetosphere. While more recent studies have refined
our knowledge of the sinks, epsilon has maintained its role as an
easily determined input estimator. In this study we discuss certain
issues about the epsilon parameter, which are not always appreciated
when using the parameter. We analyze the Poynting flux in the upstream
solar wind and discuss how it becomes incident on the magnetopause,
considering the draped magnetic field configuration in the
magnetosheath. While we cannot determine the exact amount of flux
penetrating through the magnetopause, it is clear that the flux must be
collected from a relatively large area if it really is to be considered
as the source of magnetospheric energy. Furthermore, in order to be
consistent with the interpretation of the epsilon parameter in terms of
Poynting flux, it is necessary to exclude the Sun-Earth magnetic field
component from the calculation. A further complication is that the
effective area through which the Poynting flux can penetrate through
the magnetopause cannot follow the changes in the upstream magnetic
field direction with a constant time delay due to finite speed of the
magnetosheath flow. Thus we argue that it is more physical to use the
epsilon parameter as an integral over a given, e.g., storm or substorm
time-period (energy) than as a measure of an instantaneous input rate
(power).


------------------------------------------------
S2-06

 
MHD SIMULATIONS OF SUBSTORMS FOR SPACE WEATHER

 
T. TANAKA

 
Communications Research Laboratory


 
E-mail: tanaka@crl.go.jp


 
A goal of the Space Weather Program effort at
Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) is to increase our physical
understanding of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere (S-M-I)
coupling system. In recent years, the global magnetohydarodynamic (MHD)
simulation has become increasingly successful at reconstructing and
predicting behaviors of the S-M-I system. It will implement a useful
tool for practical space weather applications. To make these outcomes
more fruitful, it is unavoidable to achieve a satisfactory success in
reproducing the substorm in the numerical model. Starting from a
stationary solution under a northward interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) condition with non-zero IMF B_y, our model reproduces the
substorm after the southward turning of the IMF. At first, the plasma
sheet thinning is promoted by the drain of closed flux from the plasma
sheet under the enhanced convection. The onset occurs as an abrupt
change of pressure distribution in the near-earth plasma sheet and an
intrusion of convection flow into the inner magnetosphere. It is
concluded that the dipolarization is not a mere pile up of the flux
ejected from the NENL but the state (phase-space) transition of the
convection system from a thinned state to a dipolarized state
associated with a self-organizing criticality.


------------------------------------------------
S2-07

 
CAN WE TRACE THE SPACE-WEATHER CONDITIONS BY THE
GROUND-BASED GEOPHYSICAL OBSERVATIONS?

 
O. A. TROSHICHEV, A. V. Shirochkov, and L. N. Makarova

 
Arctic and Antarctic Research Insitute, St.~Petersburg,
Russia


 
E-mail: olegtro@aari.nw.ru


 
The reliable and low-cost method of monitoring such
important solar wind parameters as the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) and its dynamic pressure can be ensured by the specially designed
ground-based geophysical observations. The PC-index (derived from the
ground-based polar cap geomagnetic observations) chracterizing magnetic
activity in the polar cap is a dimensionless value parameterizing by
the season, UT moment, and hemisphere. It has been calibrated for
interplanetary electric field E = (V [B_z^2 + B_y^2]) value which
merges into the magnetoshere. The PC-index calculated automatically
with 1-minute resolution can serve as a proxy for such magnetospheric
parameters as the cross-polar cap voltage, ionospheric electric field
in the near-pole region and hemispheric Joule heat value. The daytime
ionization level of the F2-region of the polar ionosphere is another
easily measured parameter, which is proportional (with correlation
degree more than 80) to the subsolar distance between the Earth and the
magnetopause. There are the strong reasons to believe that this
subsolar distance together with magnetopause shape determine amount of
the solar wind energy transferred into the
``magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere" system. Additionly, the riometer
observations of the polar cap absorption events (PCA) are the
indicators of the solar cosmic rays energy penetrated into the
near-Earth space. Consequently, the regular geomagnetic, ionospheric
and riometer observations in the near-pole region can provide an
adequate information on the current state of the magnetosphere in the
regime of quasi-real time.


------------------------------------------------
S2-08

 
REALTIME MONITOR FOR AURORAL KILOMETRIC RADIATION:
RELATIONSHIP WITH SUBSTORMS, PROPAGATIONS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE
EARTH, AND REALTIME MONITOR SYSTEM

 
T. MURATA (1), K. Tsutsumi (1), W. Kurth (2), K.
Hasimoto (3), and H. Matsumoto (3)

 
(1) Faculty of Engineering, Ehime University

(2) Iowa University

(3) Radio Science Center for Space \	 Atmosphere


 
E-mail: murata@cs.ehime-u.ac.jp


 
Magnetospheric substorms often bring us a variety of
troubles and disasters to human activities both on the Earth and in the
space. One of the strongest impacts occurred during the last solar
cycle in 1989, when the entire Province of Quebec went dark because a
geomagnetic storm caused power lines to overload. In space, astronauts
often face hazards when venturing outside the safety of the space
shuttle and need to be alerted to the dangers of energetic particle
emissions from the sun. Herein, we propose a system to monitor Auroral
Kilometric Radiation (AKR) by spacecraft in the vicinity of the Earth.
The AKR is one of the well-known plasma waves radiated form the Earth,
and deeply related with substorm activities. With our system we can
detect the onsets of the substorms within few minutes and this
information is delivered through the Internet. In our talk, we first
introduce event studies and statistic studies to demonstrate how the
AKR is related to the substorm phenomena. Then, we show how the AKR
looks like on the POLAR satellite orbits; there are regions where the
AKR is unreachable in the vicinity of the earth. After comparison with
AKR observations via GEOTAIL satellite, we can estimate the area where
the AKR is occulted by the plasmapause both in the dayside and
nightside. Clear relationships between the ``sizeh of the plasmapause
and AKR occultation regions are found in both sides. Finally, taking
into account the AKR properties, we propose the AKR onset monitor
system. We hope this system will contribute to the space weather
forecasting and substorm ``nowcastingh.


------------------------------------------------
S2-09

 
SCOSTEP S-RAMP SEPTEMBER 1999 SPACE WEATHER MONTH
CAMPAIGN: OVERVIEW OF EVENTS, WORKSHOP INTERFACE, DATA SETS AND
STUDIES UNDERWAY

 
J. U. KOZYRA

 
Space Physics Research Laboratory, University of
Michigan, 2455 Hayward, Michigan 48109-2143


 
E-mail: jukozyra@engin.umich.edu


 
September 1999 Space Weather Month was created by
SCOSTEP/ S-RAMP to identify a one-month period during which
international efforts could be focused on coordinated space weather
observations and subsequent analysis. There were roughly three periods
of shocks, ejecta and southward interplanetary magnetic fields that
triggered magnetic storms during the core campaign interval in
September 1999. This resulted in 4 moderate and 1 major magnetic storm.
A fifth moderate storm period followed at the end of the month. A major
magnetic storm in late October 1999 has also been folded into the
campaign because of its impact on ground systems and the existence of
data sets not available in September 1999. The campaign had a number of
special features including: participation by a wide variety of
ground-based observing facilities world-wide, optimized satellite
coverage from the ISTP project and \Orsted, an embedded 3-day interval
of coordinated incoherent scatter radar observations, and strong
emphasis on forecasting and effects in addition to the core research
efforts. An overview of the storm events, a description of the
electronic workshop interface developed by the SPARC project for this
campaign, the details of the available data sets and a summary of
studies currently underway will be given.


------------------------------------------------
S2-10

 
SPACE WEATHER EVENTS DURING THE S-RAMP SPECIAL
ANALYSIS
INTERVAL: APRIL -- MAY 1998

 
D. N. BAKER

 
Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University
of Colorado at Boulder


 
E-mail: baker@lasp.colorado.edu


 
Using a wide array of datasets from International Solar
Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) spacecraft, from ground-based facilities,
and from operational satellites, we have found evidence of highly
disturbed solar, solar wind, and geomagnetic conditions in late April
and early May 1998. The combination of coronal mass ejections, solar
flares, and high speed solar wind streams during this interval led to a
powerful sequence of solar wind drivers of magnetospheric processes at
the Earth. The result of the compounding solar wind disturbances was to
produce a deep, powerful, and long-lasting enhancement of the highly
relativistic electron population throughout the outer terrestrial
radiation zone. There was evidence that many space weather-related
spacecraft anomalies occurred during this active interval. S-RAMP has
collected and organized large sets of data and images for the April-May
interval. These are widely available for analysis and interpretation.
The kinds of disturbances witnessed during this remarkable interval are
indicative of the types of events that commonly occur during the solar
maximum period. It is most important to determine how well space
systems can stand up to similar multifaceted effects of the space
environment over the next several years as we pass through solar
maximum.


------------------------------------------------
S2-11

 
ENERGETIC ELECTRON BEHAVIOR IN THE OUTER RADIATION
ZONE
DURING THE SPACE WEATHER MONTH

 
T. OBARA and T. Nagatsuma

 
Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, CRL


 
E-mail: T.Obara@crl.go.jp


 
The Akebono (EXOS-D) satellite made good observations of
the entire radiation belts in the evening sector in the space weather
month (September 1999). During the campaign we had three magnetic
storms; i.e. September 12-14, 22-23, and 27-28. On early September 23,
the Dst index reached its minimum with -160 nT, showing a major
magnetic storm, while both on September 13 and 27 the decrease of the
Dst index was very gradual, having the minimum values of -70 nT and -65
nT, respectively. Even though the Dst variation was big during
September 22-23, very little enhancement of MeV electrons was observed
in the outer radiation belt during the storm recovery phase. On the
contrary large enhancements in the intensity of MeV electrons took
place for September 12-14 and 27-28, when the Dst variations were
rather small. These large enhancements were made due to the prolonged
magnetic activities during the storm recovery phase. The
Russell-McPheron effect was evident; i.e. the IMF was actually away for
the cases of September 12-14 and 27-28. The increase in the intensity
of MeV electrons was first seen in the heart of outer radiation belt
and in lower energy. As time progressed the intensity of MeV electrons
in far regions (L>5) increased, suggesting that both an internal
acceleration of the electrons and an extremely large outward diffusion
are taking place in the outer radiation belt.


------------------------------------------------
S2-12

 
EFFECTS OF IONOSPHERIC SCINTILLATION: ITS SPECIFICATION
AND
FORECASTING

 
S. BASU and K. M. Groves

 
Air Force Research Laboratory, 29 Randolph Road, Hanscom
AFB, MA 01731, U.S.A.


 
E-mail: santimay@aol.com


 
The ionized upper atmosphere often becomes turbulent and
develops electron density irregularities. These irregularities scatter
radio waves causing amplitude and phase scintillation of satellite
signals. Amplitude scintillation, when intense, causes signals to fade
below the noise level of the receiver. Under these circumstances, loss
of signal occurs which causes communication links to encounter message
errors and GPS navigation receivers to lose lock and spend additional
time to reacquire the signal. Phase scintillations, imposing rapid
changes in signal phase, introduce frequency fluctuations. When these
fluctuations exceed the receiver bandwidth, it becomes difficult to
maintain the phase lock in receivers. Scintillations are most intense
in the equatorial region and occur between one hour after sunset to
midnight. Scintillations in the polar region, though less intense than
in the equatorial region, occur virtually at all times. At all
locations, scintillations attain their maximum values during the solar
maximum period. In the equatorial region, a recently developed
scintillation specification system, known as the Scintillation Network
Decision Aid (SCINDA), has been developed. SCINDA utilizes two
geostationary satellites and performs two station measurements of
scintillation and irregularity drifts. The dataset is brought to the
user terminal by the internet and it drives a model to generate in near
real-time three dimensional maps of scintillation structures. An
equatorial satellite, Communication Navigation Outage Forecasting
System (C/NOFS), has also been planned. This satellite, consisting of a
multi-frequency beacon transmitter, GPS occultation sensor and a suite
of in-situ sensors, that include the electric field, electron density
and neutral wind sensors, is expected to specify and forecast
equatorial scintillation. A possible specification and forecasting
system for polar scintillation based on interplanetary magnetic field
observations, and a suitably dispersed scintillation and macroscale
plasma density sensors is also described.


------------------------------------------------
S2-13

 
MAGNETIC STORM INDUCED SCINTILLATIONS AT MID-LATITUDES
DURING THE SPACE WEATHER MONTHS OF SEPT/OCT 1999

 
S. BASU (1), Sa. Basu (2), J. Foster (3), and A. Ridley
(4)

 
(1) National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA 22230,
U.S.A.

(2) Air Force Research Laboratory, VSBI, Hanscom AFB, MA
01731, U.S.A.

(3) Atmospheric Sciences Group, MIT Haystack
Observatory, Westford, MA, U.S.A.

(4) University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, U.S.A.


 
E-mail: sbasu@nsf.gov


 
Scintillation and total electron content (TEC)
observations using geostationary and GPS satellites were made from
stations at \sim 40 degrees N latitudes during the period Sept/Oct 1999
to study the effects of magnetic storms on communication and navigation
systems. Coordinated DMSP satellite and incoherent scatter radar (ISR)
data are utilized to study the background conditions associated with
storm-induced TEC gradients and scintillations. Amplitude
scintillations of 15 dB on 250 MHz signals from geostationary
satellites and TEC fluctuations exceeding 5 TEC units (10^16 electrons
m^-2) per minute were observed by GPS receivers in the International
Geodynamic Service (IGS) network in conjunction with background TEC
gradients of 5-10 TEC units per degree latitude. This impulsive onset
of the stormtime component of mid-latitude scintillations is in all
probability related to the direct penetration of the high latitude
convection electric field into the plasmasphere. The ISR measurements
from Millstone Hill have been used to determine the stormtime
convection and plasma density gradients in the vicinity of the
disturbed scintillation and TEC regions. Such comparisons are utilized
to establish the relationship between the stormtime component of
scintillations and plasma convection in the context of available
models. The significance of the observed TEC fluctuations and
scintillations for the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS), a
satellite based navigation system for aircraft using GPS, is discussed.


------------------------------------------------
S2-14

 
RELATIONSHIP OF THE APR.~29, 1998 HALO CME AND THE
MAGNETIC CLOUD AND GEOACTIVITY ON MAY 2 -- 3

 
D. WEBB (1,2), R. Lepping (3), S. Plunkett (4), and
S.-T. Wu (5)

 
(1) Institute for Scientific Research, Boston College,
Chestnut Hill, MA, USA

(2) Also at Air Force Research Laboratory, Space
Vehicles Directorate, Hanscom AFB, MA, USA

(3) Laboratory for Extraterrestrial Physics, NASA
Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

(4) USRA, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt,
MD, USA

(5) Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research, The
University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL, USA


 
E-mail: david.webb@hanscom.af.mil


 
We discuss the solar activity that was likely associated
with the magnetic cloud, extended period of anomalous solar wind
signatures and moderate magnetic storm observed at Earth on May 2-3,
1998. At the Wind spacecraft the cloud was preceded by an
interplanetary shock on May 1, 2122 UT and had a duration of \sim 30
hr. It was well fit to a force-free flux rope model indicating a
diameter of \sim 1/2 AU, Left handedness, and with its axis pointed
toward the Sun and highly inclined by 55 deg. to the ecliptic. Within
the cloud and possibly extending beyond it were one or more extended
periods of flows of counterstreaming electrons and both unusually cold
and hot material, including an extensive amount of He^+, considered a
tracer of solar filament material in solar wind ejecta. Indeed, this
ejecta was likely associated with a full halo CME observed by the SOHO
LASCO coronagraphs on April 29 and an M7 long-duration flare and
filament eruption arcade event on the surface 0.4 solar radii southeast
of Sun center. We compare measurements of the orientation,
helicity/chirality, magnetic flux and speed of the solar features and
the magnetic cloud to test the utility of such events for forecasting
space weather effects. We also use an MHD coronal streamer and flux
rope model to predict the solar wind, cloud and storm parameters.


------------------------------------------------
S2-15

 
RAPID PROTOTYPING: APPLYING RESEARCH MODELS AND DATA
TO
OPERATIONAL SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING

 
T. G. ONSAGER

 
NOAA Space Environment Center, Boulder, Colorado


 
E-mail: tonsager@sec.noaa.gov


 
Advances in solar-terrestrial research are resulting in
improved numerical models that can be applied to regions of space
extending from the Sun to Earth. In addition to improved models,
critical observations are also now available, some in near real-time,
to drive and to validate the models. At the same time, available models
must be carefully evaluated to determine their robustness, accuracy,
and usefulness to space weather forecasting. This presentation will
describe the models that are now being used operationally and those
that are undergoing internal evaluation at the NOAA Space Environment
Center. The various elements of the prototyping process used to
evaluate model candidates and to transition selected models into
operations will also be discussed. This process of model selection and
transition includes: (1) model evaluation to assess the potential value
to space weather operations and readiness to transition from research
to operations; (2) implementation, modification, and evaluation in an
operational environment; and (3) final transition to operational use.
Specific operational applications of the existing models, and desired
improvements to current capabilities will also be given.


------------------------------------------------
S2-16

 
TRANSITION OF RESEARCH RESULT TO OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT

 
C.-I. MENG

 
The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory


 
E-mail: Ching.Meng@jhuapl.edu


 
 Prototyping space research results to real time
practical space weather applications is an important aspect of the
modern space science research. More importantly, it bears on its
relevance to society benefits perceived by the public. I will discuss
the synergy between scientific research and applications as well as
present the importance of balancing basic research activity on space
weather and dedicated effort in transitioning of existing space weather
products. I will describe examples that have successfully transformed
research products into operational uses. The first example is the
visualization of boundaries of the instantaneous auroral oval. The
second example is the production of a geomagnetic disturbance index on
the fly for nowcasting of space weather activity. Potential utilization
of these products will also be discussed.


------------------------------------------------
S2-17

 
THE COMMUNITY COORDINATED MODELING CENTER

 
K. Baker (1), P. Bellaire (2), M. Bonadonna (3), J.
Bredekamp (4), M. Heinemann (5), M. HESSE (6), T. Onsager (7), B.
Robinson (1), J. Sharber (4), and K. Scro (8)

 
(1) National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA

(2) Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Arlington,
VA

(3) HQ USAF/XOWX, Arlington, VA

(4) NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC

(5) AFRL, Hanscom AFB, MA

(6) NASA GSFC, Code 696, Greenbelt, MD

(7) NOAA Space Environment Center, Boulder, CO

(8) AF/SMC, Colorado Springs, CO


 
E-mail: hesse@gsfc.nasa.gov


 
The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a
multi-agency partnership aimed at the creation of next generation space
weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to undertake the research and
developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day
modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models
for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather
forecast centers. This goal requires substantial research community
involvement. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related
activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper
atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of NASA's Living With a Star
initiative, of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan,
and of the National Security Space Architect's Transition Plan for
space weather. CCMC includes a headquarters facility at NASA Goddard
Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities
provided by the Air Force. In this paper we will provide updates on
CCMC status, on current plans, research and development accomplishments
and goals, and on the level of community involvement already underway.
In particular, we will discuss recent science results obtained by CCMC
models.


------------------------------------------------
S2-18

 
THE USE OF DATA ASSIMILATION IN THE MAGNETOSPHERIC
SPECIFICATION MODEL

 
R. A. WOLF (1), R. W. Spiro (1), M. F. Thomsen (2), and
H. Korth (2)

 
(1) Rice Space Institue, Rice University

(2) Los Alamos National Laboratory


 
E-mail: garner@rice.edu


 
This paper will present recent attempts to assimilate
geosynchronous particle data into the Magnetospheric Specification
Model (MSM), an operational model of the inner magnetosphere that is
presently being used by the Space Environment Center to provide
nowcasts. The MSM calculates particle fluxes by following drifts in
data-driven, time-dependent models of the electric and magnetic fields.
Data assimilation can be used to improve the performance of the
operational model. We will discuss and test the effectiveness of two
different data assimilation techniques, direct insertion and
optimization of the input. The direct-insertion method overrides the
model-calculated particle fluxes with measured values, in the vicinity
of the measurement. The input-optimization method adjusts model input
conditions (electric and magnetic field models, plasma boundary
conditions) at each time step to optimize agreement with observations.


------------------------------------------------
S2-19

 
SUBSTORMS AND MAGNETIC STORMS FROM THE SATELLITE
CHARGING PERSPECTIVE

 
J. F. FENNELL, H. C. Koons, J. L. Roeder, and J. B.
Blake

 
The Aerospace Corporation


 
E-mail: joseph.f.fennell@aero.orb


 
Substorms and magnetic storms generate significant space
weather effects in the inner magnetosphere. They change the dose rates
experienced by satellites in many orbits and are directly linked to the
occurrence of satellite charging. Substorms inject hot plasma into the
nightside magnetosphere. The drifting electron component of this hot
plasma can charge the surfaces of the satellites leading to
electrostatic discharges and associated satellite anomalies and
sometimes failures. These occur in regions that are consistent with the
expected motions of the substorm injected particles. The high energy
electron enhancements associated with many magnetic storms can be
sufficient to cause charging of satellite elements even behind
significant shielding. Not all magnetic storms result in flux
enhancements sufficient to cause such ``internal" charging. Also,
because the induced voltages from the ``internal" charging are usually
not directly measured, the anomalies they cause are more difficult to
link to the space environment and the magnetic storm related space
weather. However, there are a few cases in which either the anomaly
statistics were sufficient to show linkage or the anomaly was
reproduced by laboratory testing using energetic electron beams. Data
from different satellites will be used to show the measurement of
surface charging from different regions of space and link the charging
to electrostatic discharges and anomalies. Similarly, we will show the
magnetic storm related variability of the high energy electron fluxes
and provide a look at some of the evidence that these penetrating
fluxes can lead to spacecraft anomalies.


------------------------------------------------
S2-20

 
A STATISTICAL LINK BETWEEN MAGNETIC STORMS AND
SPACECRAFT ANOMALIES

 
M. P. FREEMAN (1), M. Daws (1,2), and R. B. Horne (1)

 
(1) British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, U.K.

(2) Cambridge University, U.K.


 
E-mail: M.P.Freeman@bas.ac.uk


 
We present a statistical method to test whether there is
an association between magnetic storms and spacecraft anomalies and, if
so, to find what proportion of spacecraft anomalies are associated with
magnetic storms. The method is a superposed epoch analysis combined
with information on the known observed statistical distribution of
magnetic storms and presumed statistical distribution of spacecraft
anomalies. For a general database of 5033 spacecraft anomalies
collected over 30 years and compiled by NOAA's National Geophysical
Data Center, the results give the percentage of all spacecraft
anomalies and of electrostatic discharge anomalies that are
statistically associated with magnetic storms.


------------------------------------------------
S2-21

 
MONITORING EQUIVALENT DOSES RECEIVED BY AIR CREW

 
P. LANTOS

 
Observatoire de Paris-Meudon, France


 
E-mail: Pierre.Lantos@obspm.fr


 
By application of an EU Directive, European air
transport companies have to monitor annual equivalent doses received by
air crew, starting in 2000. Calculations based on cosmic ray
observation are the solution accepted by French Authorities. We will
present the project, which is a typical Space Weather application.


------------------------------------------------
S2-22

 
GROUND EFFECTS OF SPACE WEATHER

 
R. PIRJOLA

 
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland


 
E-mail: risto.pirjola@fmi.fi


 
At the Earth's surface a space weather event manifests
itself as a rapid variation of the geomagnetic field. The variation
induces a geoelectric field that drives ``geomagnetically induced
currents" (GIC) in technological systems, like electric power
transmission grids, pipelines, phone cables and railway systems. In
power grids, saturation of transformers may occur, which can have
several harmful consequences and even result in a black-out of the
whole system and in permanent damage of transformers. In pipelines, GIC
are accompanied by fluctuations of the pipe-to-soil potential. This
interferes with corrosion control surveys and also changes the
electrochemical conditions at the pipe-soil interface enhancing
possibilities of corrosion of the pipe steel. Telecommunication systems
have also experienced trouble due to GIC, like overvoltages and even
fires. On railways, misoperations of traffic signals have occurred. So
far, Finland has not suffered from GIC problems but, due to the
high-latitude location, GIC constitute a potential risk in the country.
Therefore, the phenomenon is studied as a collaboration between the
Finnish Meteorological Institute and the Fingrid power and Gasum
pipeline companies. An active GIC research was started in Finland
already more than twenty years ago. The research has contained GIC
recordings, theoretical model calculations and statistical analyses of
the occurrence of GIC in the Finnish systems. In a recent study, a
special attention was paid to the possibility of large GIC at several
400 kV or 220 kV transformers simultaneously since such a situation is
critical regarding reactive power consumption in the system. A power
transmission system is a discretely-earthed network while a buried
pipeline is earthed continuously through its coating, so modelling
methods are quite different in these two cases.


------------------------------------------------
S2-23

 
HIGH VOLTAGE POWER TRANSMISSION LINE DISTURBANCES DURING
LARGE GEOMAGNETIC STORMS

 
P. STAUNING

 
Solar-Terrestrial Physics Division, Danish
Meteorological Institute


 
E-mail: pst@dmi.dk


 

oindent

On March 13, 1989 a large geomagnetic storm caused extensive
disruptions of high voltage power transmission circuits especially in
the Quebec province of Canada but also to a lesser degree in
Scandinavia. Similar events have occurred earlier a.o. during the great
storms of February 8 - 9, 1986 and July 13 - 14, 1982. Some of these
cases are connected to the chock-like disturbances accompanying the
compression of the front of the magnetosphere by a sudden enhancement
in the solar wind plasma. Other cases are related to extraordinarily
intense substorm events. Using ground geomagnetic recordings it is
attempted to trace the varying ionospheric current systems causing the
power line failures in Scandinavia. The effects of ionospheric currents
on extended conducting structures at the ground such as power
transmission lines, signal lines and oil or gas pipe lines have
previously been described by various models of geomagnetically induced
currents (GIC). Some of these models have been applied to the storm
events considered. The correspondance between model predictions and
actual disturbances will be discussed as part of the presentation.
Corresponding observations from the recent large magnetic storm on
April 6-7, 2000, will also be presented.


------------------------------------------------
S2-24

 
STUDY OF GEOELECTRIC FIELD AND GEOMAGNETICALLY INDUCED
CURRENTS DURING RECENT SPACE WEATHER EVENTS

 
L. TRICHTCHENKO and D. H. Boteler

 
Geomagnetic Laboratory, Geological Survey of Canada,
Ottawa


 
E-mail: larisa@geolab.nrcan.gc.ca


 
Disturbances of the Earth's magnetic field induce
electric fields and currents in the ground and in the network of power
lines, pipelines and phone cables spread on the surface of the Earth.
Geomagnetically induced current (GIC) data from various systems across
Canada together with the geoelectric and geomagnetic field measurements
were collected and analyzed for different space weather events.
Geomagnetic field observations and layered earth conductivity structure
were used to model the geoelectric field. The modelling results showed
a good correlation with the GIC data.

We studied how the earth conductivity structure and the spatial
characteristics of the magnetic field disturbance affects the accuracy
of the modelling. This shows that better knowledge of the ionospheric
electrojet position and therefore the spatial characteristics of
geomagnetic field disturbance can improve our modelling of the
geoelectric field and GIC in the ground systems.


------------------------------------------------
S2-25

 
NOWCASTING SPACE WEATHER EFFECTS IN THE HIGH-LATITUDE
IONOSPHERE WITH THE SUPERDARN HF RADARS

 
J. M. RUOHONIEMI, R. A. Greenwald, and R. J. Barnes

 
The johns Hopkins University applied Physics Laboratory


 
E-mail: mike\_ruohoniemi@jhuapl.edu


 
The SuperDARN network of HF radars in the northern
hemisphere has recently been expanded with the addition of three radars
to include coverage of western Canada, Alaska, and eastern Siberia. At
times, effects in the ionosphere can be observed over 2/3 of the entire
high-latitude region. The convection velocity data can be synthesized
into global maps of the convection pattern. These patterns portray the
Space Weather within the ionospheric plasma windsand provide a useful
diagnostic of the overall state of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system.
Internet links to the radars make it possible to perform the analysis
on the fly. In this presentation we review the activity during selected
periods of intense Space Weather in SuperDARN nowcastmode. The onset
and progress of disturbances are easily monitored. In addition to
showing regions of intensified electric fields and currents, the
various maps available at the site show the movement of auroral
boundaries, the distribution of HF clutter, and the progress of HF
absorption. The web page provides real-time estimates of the total
cross polar cap potential variation and the effective delay time from
the arrival of effects at an upstream solar wind monitor (ACE) to
impact on the ionosphere. We discuss the operation of the SuperDARN
nowcast facility and the application of its products to the validation
and correction of predictive Space Weather services.


------------------------------------------------
S2-26

 
A WEB-BASED EMPIRICAL MODEL OF THE EARTH'S IONOSPHERE
USING INCOHERENT SCATTER RADAR DATA

 
J. HOLT and R. Sitar

 
MIT Haystack Observatory


 
E-mail: jmh@haystack.mit.edu


 
A Web-based regional empirical model of the ionosphere
using incoherent scatter radar data from 1970 to the present is being
developed. This model includes two parts: first, a model of basic and
derived scalar parameters as measured at Millstone Hill, including
electron density, electron and ion temperature, neutral meridional wind
and exospheric temperature; and second, a model of the  E ~
\mbox\boldmath B plasma drifts and corresponding electrostatic
potential patterns as obtained from measurements at Millstone Hill and
the Sondrestrom facility in Greenland. The scalar model is keyed to
solar and geomagnetic indices chosen by multiple regression, so that
deviations of actual data from the model represent the remaining
day-to-day variability due to such causes as tidal forcings, gravity
waves and uncertainties in the solar EUV flux. The electric field model
is keyed to the interplanetary magnetic field. It represents the
average response to solar wind induced changes in the magnetospheric
convection, thus providing a baseline from which more variable effects
of substorms, storms and disturbed neutral winds (the disturbance
dynamo) can be isolated. The combined model will be valuable in several
ways to space weather studies and systems. Incoherent scatter radar
data are available only a few days a month due to budgetary
restrictions, but the model will always be available to provide a
climatological representation of the state of the ionosphere and its
variability for any set of conditions. The model covers a wide range of
latitude and thus is useful for validation of global theoretical and
empirical models. It will also be used in investigations of specific
scientific problems, such as storm-time density gradients and
enhancements. The model is available over the World Wide Web for
user-specified input parameters, and a real-time version is planned.


------------------------------------------------
S2-27

 
THE REAL TIME AMIE TECHNIQUE: HOW IT WORKS AND HOW WE
CAN MAKE IT BETTER

 
A. RIDLEY

 
Space Physics Research Laboratory, University of
Michigan


 
E-mail: ridley@umich.edu


 
The real-time version of the assimilative mapping of
ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) is a model which ingests
ground-based magnetometer data which is available in near-real-time to
provide a now-cast of the ionospheric electric potential, currents, and
particle precipitation pattern. The model then makes a 1 hour
prediction of the ionospheric state. We discribe the data gathering and
processing techniques involved in this effort. In addition, we discuss
the validation of the now-cast and forecast. Included in this
discussion are suggestions for realistic locations for new (real-time
available) ground based magnetometers which would significantly improve
the specifications and forecasts provided by this model.


------------------------------------------------
S2-28

 
THE SPACE WEATHER REQUIREMENTS FOR INDIA--A PERSPECTIVE

 
B. M. REDDY (1) and D. R. Lakshmi (2)

 
(1) National Geophysical Research Institute

(2) National Physical Laboratory


 
E-mail: postmast@csngri.ren.nic.in


 
 India, the most populous tropical country is presently
a combination of old traditions and state of the art in science and
technology. While launching sophisticated satellites for communications
and remote sensing, HF communications remain as the workhorse for a
number of organisations in the country.In view of this, the space
weather requirements listed below are at once traditional and very
modern:

(1) Long term solar and Ionospheric predictions for High
Frequency (HF) communications

(2) Solar cycle predictions to plan low orbiting
satellite launch planning and for deciding orbital parameters

(3) Short term solar and magnetic event predictions for
communications and satellite tracking

(4) Equatorial scintillation predictions to warn on
satellite link degradation

(5) Intense Magnetic storm and particle event prediction
to issue alerts on single event upsets at the geostationary orbit

(6) Real time indexing of geomagnetic activity to aid in
Earth resources survey and in other remote sensing applications.

The present status and future plans in all the above areas will be
presented.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P01

 
ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS
(CMEs), INTENSIVE SOLAR FLARES, SOME MAGNETOSPHERIC PARAMETERS AND
DIFFERENT TYPE AURORAS DURING GREAT MAGNETIC STORMS

 
Y. P. MALTSEV and L. S. Yevlashin

 
Polar Geophysical Institute


 
E-mail: maltsev@pgi.kolasc.net.ru


 
Six giant magnetic storms, with the minimum value of Dst
variation less than -250 nT were analyzed. They are on Febr. 8-9, 1986;
March 13-14, 1989; Oct. 21-22, 1989; March 24-25, 1991; Oct., 28-29,
1991, and Nov. 8-9, 1991. All of these superstorms were preceded by
solar flares and, in some events, by Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) as
well. During these superstorms, over large areas of the Earth surface,
there were registered bright auroras, the luminosity spectrum of which
depended on the type of heliospheric source. In some events bright
green auroras occurred, whereas the A-type red ones were observed in
others. Some suggestions have been made as to the nature and mechanisms
of origin of similar types of luminosity. Unfortunately, data on the
parameters of the solar wind generating those storms were either not
available or extremely scarce. So, on the basis of the available data
on temporal variations of the Dst index, we restored the IMP B_z
component and estimated the polar cap electric voltage. Quite large
values of the latter were obtained, which agrees fairly well with some
direct measurements.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P02

 
THE RELIABILITY OF PREDICTIONS OF LARGE SOLAR WIND
DISTURBANCES BY AN UPSTREAM MONITOR

 
P. A. DALIN (1), A. J. Lazarus (2), G. N. Zastenker (1),
K. I. Paularena (2), and J. D. Richardson (2)

 
(1) Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia

(2) Center for Space Research, MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA


 
E-mail: pdalin@iki.rssi.ru


 
Comparison of simultaneous solar wind plasma
observations by several widely-separated spacecraft (INTERBALL-1, IMP
8, and WIND) has shown that the average value of their
cross-correlations was about 0.7 and 15-20 % of cases had the very poor
correlations, less than 0.5. This result means that predictions of
solar wind disturbances coming to the Earth based on upstream
measurements (at L1, for example) may be incorrect. We studied the
dependence of the reliability of these predictions on the amplitude of
solar wind disturbances and found that if we calculate the correlations
for large and abrupt disturbances (for example, the increasing of the
solar wind density or ion flux in 1.5-2 times or more during several
minutes), we obtain average correlation values as large as 0.9-1.0.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P03

 
GEOEFFICIENCY OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS DURING A
RISING
SOLAR CYCLE

 
K. E. J. Huttunen (1), H. E. J. KOSKINEN (1,2), R.
Schwenn (3), and O. C. St. Cyr (4)

 
(1) University of Helsinki, Department of Physics

(2) Finnish Meteorological Institute, Geophysical
Research

(3) Max-Planck-Insitut f\"ur Aeronomie

(4) Naval Research Laboratory, Solar Physics Branch


 
E-mail: Hannu.Koskinen@fmi.fi


 
We have analyzed the geoefficiency of halo and partial
halo coronal mass ejections (CME) observed by the SOHO/
LASCO
instrument during 1996-1999 with the exception of the second half of
1998 when the spacecraft was inoperative. This period covers most of
the rising phase of cycle 23. Near the minimum most storms with Dst <
-50 nT were driven by shocks and/or CMEs. Toward the maximum the number
of disturbances due to high-speed streams increases. Furthermore, the
distribution of CMEs becomes spread over a larger range of latitudes,
which reduces the relative amount of earthward directed CMEs. If the
observed halo or partial halo CMEs would have been used to forecast
magnetospheric storms, the predictions had been much better in
1996-1997 but no more in 1998. The reason for this appears to be that
near minimum the axes of the CMEs tend to be closer to the ecliptic
plane whereas during increasing activity they can be oriented in any
direction. Thus good space weather forecasting needs detailed
observations of the alignment of the CME axis as well as a good
prediction how far the CME axis will pass the Earth.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P04

 
ENERGETIC ELECTRON VARIATION IN THE OUTER RADIATION
ZONE
DURING EARLY MAY 1998 MAGNETIC STORM

 
T. OBARA (1), Y. Miyoshi (2), and A. Morioka (2)

 
(1) Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, CRL

(2) Planetary Plasma and Atmospheric Research Center,
Tohoku University


 
E-mail: T.Obara@crl.go.jp


 
Using NOAA and Akebono observations we examined
variations of the energetic electron flux in the outer radiation zone
during May 2 and 4, 1998 magnetic storm, which was two-step storm. Both
a flux dropout and an inward shift of the outer belt MeV electrons were
recorded during the main phase of May 2 magnetic storm. A very big
injection of the intermediate energy (30 keV - 100 keV) electrons to
the heart of the outer radiation zone took place during the main phase
of the storm. During the recovery phase of the storm an increase in the
MeV electron flux was seen, which surpassed the pre-storm level in one
day. Comparison of NOAA and Akebono observations yields that the
injected electrons with energy of 100 keV seeded a subsequent
enhancement of the MeV electrons in the outer radiation zone. A more
inward shift of the peak position as well as a flux dropout occurred
during the main phase of the May 4 magnetic storm. No significant
injection of the intermediate energy (30 keV - 100 keV) electrons was,
however, seen during the main phase of the May 4 magnetic storm. A
remarkable increase of the MeV electron flux was seen during the
recovery phase of the storm. The pre-existing intermediate electrons
seeded the increase of the MeV electrons near the new peak portion. The
increase propagated to higher L region with a significant time delay,
suggesting an enhanced radial diffusion.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P05

 
ENHANCEMENTS OF ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DURING THE RECOVERY PHASE OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM:
IMPORTANCE OF THE SUBSTORM ACTIVITY HISTORY

 
M. Fukata (1), S. Taguchi (1), T. OKUZAWA (1), and T.
Obara (2)

 
(1) Department of Information \	 Communication
Engineering, University of Electro-communications

(2) Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center,
Communications Research Laboratory


 
E-mail: okuzawa@ice.uec.ac.jp


 
 Relativistic (>2 MeV) electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit(GSO) enhances during the recovery phase of geomagnetic storm
after its rapid diminishment in the main phase, and this enhancement
often exceeds the pre-storm level. In this study we demonstrate that
this electron flux enhancement during the recovery phase is strongly
associated with the history of substorm activity represented by \Sigma
AL, where \Sigma denotes the summation from the time of a Dst minimum
peak. We used electron flux data that were obtained with Space
Environment Monitor onboard Geostationary Meteorological Satellite. Our
approach is to model the temporal variations of the electron flux with
the technique of Elman artificial neural network (ANN). The recent
history of AL, \Sigma AL, Dst, \Sigma Dst, and time from the Dst
minimum were used as initial input parameters, and the ANN was trained
using the data with 1043 hours of 9 typical storms. The performance of
the model was evaluated by comparing output electron fluxes with
one-hour ahead observations for 20 storm events that were selected from
the period of 1978-1994. The best prediction is identified at Oct. 5-9,
1985 storm for which the correlation coefficient is 0.95, and the
prediction efficiency reaches 80. The average of the correlation
coefficient for the 20 cases is 0.84, the prediction efficiency 71, and
the rms error of the network 0.47 It is found that these high
evaluation marks are obtained only when \Sigma AL is included in the
input parameters.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P06

 
FORMATION OF NEW PROTON RADIATION BELT ASSOCIATED WITH
SOLAR PROTON EVENTS AND INTERPLANETARY SHOCKS

 
M. DEN (1), T. Obara (1), and T. Onsager (2)

 
(1) Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, CRL

(2) Space Environment Center, NOAA


 
E-mail: den@crl.go.jp


 
It was revealed that a formation of a new proton
radiation belt is closely associated with solar energetic protons and
an interplanetary shock passage. A solar proton event was detected by
GOES satellite at 14:20 UT on May 2, 1998 and the flux (6.3 MeV-15 MeV)
enhancement appeared in region around L=4.5 in the data of Akebono
satellite at 17:25 UT on May 2. The Akebono also observed the increase
in the higher energy (15 MeV-29 MeV, 29 MeV-62 MeV) proton flux there
at 20:27 UT, which indicates the penetration of the energetic protons
to near Earth region. The ACE satellite detected multiple
interplanetary shock passages from Apr 30 to May 4, and two major
magnetic storms occurred during that period. Solar proton event was on
going during the first magnetic storm and a strong interplanetary shock
hit the geomagnetic field. A new proton radiation belt was formed in
the region around L=3.0 due to this shock. This phenomenon indicates
that SEPs are source population of the new proton radiation belt, and
the interplanetary shock and a strong compression of the Earth's
geomagnetic field play an important role in the formation of the new
proton radiation belt. This radiation belt persisted for several
months, causing significant bad effects on spacecraft and astronauts.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P07

 
RADIAL DEPENDENCE OF RELATIVISTIC ELECTRON FLUXES DURING
THE STORM MAIN PHASE

 
H.-J. KIM, G. Rostoker, and Y. Kamide

 
Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya
University


 
E-mail: hjk@stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp


 
Satellite observations have revealed that the flux
variations of outer belt relativistic electrons during the main phase
of magnetic storms exhibit a strong radial dependence. This dependency
on L can be characterized as small increases or decreases at the inner
edge of the belt (L\sim 2.5-3.5) and a large decrease in its outer
region (L \sim 5-6). In this work, we extend the study by Kim and Chan
[1997] of relativistic electron flux decreases at geostationary orbit
and investigate the characteristic radial dependence in terms of the
fully adiabatic response of relativistic electrons to magnetic field
perturbations. We calculate storm time fluxes of equatorially mirroring
electrons by adiabatically evolving the prestorm values using
Liouville's theorem and the conservation of the first and third
adiabatic invariants. Calculations of fully adiabatic fluxes
successfully reproduce the radial variation of relativistic electron
fluxes during the storm main phase. It is the radial structure of
magnetic field perturbations and the spatial and energy dependence of
the quiet time electron distribution that affect the main phase fluxes
in an adiabatic process. In response to the field perturbations,
adiabatic flux changes become larger at larger L shells where electrons
experience strong deceleration and large radial displacement. The
slight increase of the inner edge electron flux can be attributed to
the non-monotonic energy spectrum of the quiet time electron
distribution. The increasing electron flux with energy can yield a flux
increase even during adiabatic deceleration. We conclude that a fully
adiabatic treatment can explain the observed variation of relativistic
electron fluxes across the outer radiation belt during the storm main
phase.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P08

 
MAGNETIC FIELD VARIATIONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AND
ITS RELATIONS TO RELATIVISTIC ELECTRON FLUX

 
T. NAGATSUMA and T. Obara

 
Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, CRL


 
E-mail: tnagatsu@crl.go.jp


 
Magnetic field variations at geosynchronous orbit can
give us information of magnetospheric current systems, Since magnetic
field variations at geosynchronous orbit are caused by magnetospheric
current systems including magnetopause currents, ring currents, cross
tail currents, and field-aligned currents. We have statistically
examined dynamic pressure, pressure-corrected Dst, and dipole tilt
angle dependence of magnetic field variations at geosynchronous orbit
with using 1-hour averaged magnetic field data obtained from GOES-8, 9,
and 10. The results of our data analysis suggest that the contribution
from tail currents is significant in the midnight sector and the tail
current region seems to approach geosynchronous orbit during the large
storm while the contribution from ring currents and magnetopause
currents are significant in the noon sector. On the contrary, current
relativistic electron flux is one of the important information for
satellite operation. However, observations of relativistic electron
flux are not fully covered at whole longitude of geosynchronous orbit.
Therefore some assimilative technique is needed for estimating flux at
whole orbit. For this point of view, we start studying the
relationships between magnetic field and relativistic electron flux
using the results of our statistical data analysis. Because L-shell
value is changing depending on local time and magnetic activity due to
magnetic field variations. The result of our study and possibility for
estimating relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit will be
presented.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P09

 
MULTI-SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS OF GEOSYNCHRONOUS
MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS

 
D. YOSHIDA and T. Araki

 
Department of Geophysics, Graduate School of Science,
Kyoto University


 
E-mail: daiki@kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp


 
The magnetopause sometimes moves across the
geosynchronous orbit. These events are called Geosynchronous
Magnetopause Crossings (GMCs). Here we show 3 case studies of GMC
events. The first event occurred on February 8, 1986. The magnetopause
moving earthward was  observed first by AMPTE/CCE satellite at 1433 UT
around 8.2 R_E and 10 LT and 5 min later by GOES-5 around 6.6 R_E and
9.5 LT. The magnetic field increased both at the geosynchronous orbit
and on the ground suggesting effect of the solar wind dynamic pressure.
In the second event which occurred 2013--2326 UT also on February 8,
1986, the bow shock was observed at 7.5 R_E by AMPTE/CCE, and a
magnetopause crossing was observed at 5.2 R_E by AMPTE/CCE. The average
velocity of the inward motion was about 30-40 km/sec. The third GMC
event occurred on March 10, 1998. GOES-9 located in the morning side
(9h LT) went out into the magnetosheath from 1754 to 1807 UT but GOES-8
around noon (13h LT) stayed in the magnetosphere. The IMF-B_z took a
large negative value (-15 nT) and the SYM index decreased to -110 nT.
Since the solar wind dynamic pressure was  not so high (about 5 nPa),
magnetic erosion may be a main cause of this GMC.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P10

 
CHANNELS OF INFLUENCE OF THE SHORT-TERM CHANGES IN SOLAR
ACTIVITY ON STATE OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE

 
O. TROSHICHEV, A. Shirochkov, A. Frank-Kamenetsky, I.
Gabis, L. Egorova, L. Makarova, and V. Vovk

 
Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St.~Petersburg,
Russia


 
E-mail: olegtro@aari,nw.ru


 
Analysis of long standing measurements of atmospheric
perturbations in the Arctic and Antarctic regions has revealed that the
polar lower atmosphere is affected by fluctuations of solar and
galactic cosmic rays, changes in the solar wind pressure and variations
of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The cosmic rays variations
crucially influence temperature and pressure regimes above the
Antarctic plateau and can dramatically change the wind system above
Antarctica. Changes in the UV irradiation have been found in connection
with such manifestations of solar activity as the active regions, solar
proton events, and passage of regions responsible for the Forbush
decrease. It is significant that UV-irradiance starts to increase 5-7
days before the key day of solar proton events (SPE) or Forbush
decrease, that can explain ahead reaction of the lower atmosphere to
the Forbush decrease and SPE. Finding of the quasi-biennial periodicity
in level of the solar UV irradiance implies that just change in solar
UV radiation specifies the west or east direction of zonal winds in the
Earth's equatorial stratosphere i.e., well-known quasi-biennial
oscillations-QBO). Temperature and circulation regimes in the lower
stratosphere are also crucially affected by the location of the
magnetopause, i.e., by the solar wind pressure. The IMF parameters
determine the electric potential patterns in the polar region
and,influence, correspondingly, the global electric circuit generated
by tropical thunderstorms. These four channels act simultaneously and
inconsistently; mechanisms of their acion remain unclear.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P11

 
ON NONLINEARITY FEATURES OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM

 
Z. VOROS, A. Prigancova, and D. Jankovicova

 
Geophysical Institute SAS, Slovak Republik


 
E-mail: geomag@geomag.sk


 
The issues of the Sun-climate connections attract the
interest within the global change studies. To solve global problems an
application of global approaches implying the consideration of as
complete set of forcing factors as possible is required. To infer the
patterns of the climate system response in a more reliable manner the
plausible space weather signatures in the meteorological parameter
changes are analysed. For this purpose the available time series of air
temperature and indices of solar and/or geomagnetic activity on a daily
value basis are used as input data for nonlinear analysis to reveal
specific features of the climate system dynamical behaviour. The
results obtained are discussed from the viewpoint of the nonlinear
characteristics derived.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P12

 
NEW PROSPECTS IN PATTERN RECOGNITION OF SPACE WEATHER
CONDITIONS

 
Z. VOROS, D. Jankovicova, P. Dolinsky, and F. Valach

 
GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE SAS


 
E-mail: geomag@geomag.sk


 
The Earth's magnetosphere exhibits considerable spatial
changes and large temporal fluctuations within a wide range of scales
which are directly related to the conditions present in the solar --
terrestrial system. In order to contribute to the understanding of
solar wind -- magnetosphere interactions linear and nonlinear
techniques will be used in the paper. The scaling and singularity
properties of the field fluctuations will be modeled by multifractals.
Simultaneously, multivariate statistics and neural networks
representing powerful pattern -- recognition techniques for an improved
classification of space weather conditions will be also applied.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P13

 
DIURNAL VARIATION OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY AND ITS ROLE
IN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST

 
W. LYATSKY (1,2) and A. M. Hamza (1)

 
(1) Physics Department, University of New Brunswick,
Fredericton, N.B., E3B 5A3 Canada

(2) Polar Geophysical Institute, Apatity, 184200 Russia


 
E-mail: lyatsky@unb.ca


 
We calculated the diurnal variations both in the
occurrence of large AE indices and in the AO index. Both methods show
similar diurnal variations in geomagnetic activity with a deep minimum
around (3-7) UT in winter and equinoctial months. In winter months, the
probability of high geomagnetic activity versus UT varies by as much as
a factor of 3, and in equinoctial months it can vary by a factor of
1.5. The observed UT variation is consistent with earlier results of
other scientists, but it is very different from that expected from
mechanisms proposed earlier to explain the seasonal variation. The
existence of the diurnal variation in geomagnetic activity shows that
some UT sectors are more or less favorable to the development of
geomagnetic disturbances than other UT sectors. We calculated
correlation patterns for the AE index versus solar wind parameters
inside and outside the (02-07) UT sector related to the minimum in
geomagnetic activity. The correlation patterns appear indeed different
in these two sectors. It shows that it is possible to improve
significantly the reliability of Space Weather forecast by taking into
account the dependence of geomagnetic activity not only on solar wind
parameters but also on universal time and season. Our test shows that a
simple account for the dependence of geomagnetic activity on universal
time can improve the reliability of Space Weather forecasting by at
least two times in the (02-07) UT sector.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P14

 
NEAR-REAL TIME Kp ESTIMATES

 
K. TAKAHASHI (1), B. A. Toth (1), J. V. Olson (2), and
B. J. Anderson (1)

 
(1) The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics
Laboratory

(2) Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska


 
E-mail: kazue.takahashi@jhuapl.edu


 
The existing Kp index is the result of an effort to
quantify geomagnetic disturbances in a simple manner. The index is
derived from magnetic field data acquired at 13 ground stations
distributed worldwide at moderately high latitudes (49-62 degrees). Kp
is widely used to empirically specify the location of the cusp,
plasmapause, and other plasma regions/boundaries, and also as input to
various models of the magnetosphere and ionosphere. The official Kp
index is delivered with a delay of many days so it is not useful for
near-real time monitoring of the state of the magnetosphere. For
operational purposes, one could obtain Kp estimates with much smaller
delay using data available in near-real time from some stations.
However, there are problems with the estimates: (1) the magnetometer
data contain spikes and other anomalies and these need to be removed;
(2) there is no clear definition of the quiet day curve that gives the
baseline for the magnetic field perturbation at each station; (3)
longitudinal distribution of the stations is not the same as those for
the official Kp. In this paper we present a practical procedure to
handle these problems. Specifically, we describe a data-adaptive data
cleaning procedure, an automated procedure to define the quiet day
curve, and a method to relate the magnetic field perturbation to the K
index for individual stations. Test runs of our algorithm using data
from 9 INTERMAGNET stations indicate that the correlation coefficient
between the estimated and official Kp is higher than 0.9 with a
standard error of approximately 0.5 (in Kp unit).


------------------------------------------------
S2-P15

 
SPACE ENVIRONMENT SIMULATOR FOR THE RESEARCH OF THE
SPACECRAFT-PLASMA INTERACTIONS

 
H. USUI, H. Matsumoto, and Y. Omura

 
Radio Science Center for Space and Atmosphere, Kyoto
University


 
E-mail: usui@kurasc.kyoto-u.ac.jp


 
One of the important issues to be studied in the space
weather research is the influence of the solar activity variation to
the spacecraft environment. In order to investigate the
spacecraft-plasma interactions, we would like to propose the space
environment simulator which enables us to perform large-scaled
numerical simulations of the PIC (Particle-In-Cell) model. Since the
simulator can solve the spatial and temporal evolution of the
electromagnetic fields and plasma dynamics in the self-consistent
manner, we can examine the physical process of the
spacecraft-environment interactions including kinetic effects such as
charging/discharging at the surface, plasma and field responses not
only in the steady state but also in the transient state. A prototype
of this simulator is planned to be installed as one of the components
of the space simulation net laboratory. This net laboratory is now
being developed and will enable us to perform numerical simulations
through the network by providing the plasma environment of interest as
the initial and boundary conditions. In the presentation, in addition
to the concept of the simulator and the net simulation laboratory, we
will present some results of the simulations associated with the
spacecraft-plasma interactions such as observed in the electrodynamic
tethered satellite experiments.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P16

 
THE STUDY OF IONOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO SOLAR FLARE
OCCURRED ON NOV. 22, 1998 WITH GPS METHOD

 
D. ZHANG, Z. Xiao, and Q. Chang

 
Department of Geophysics, Peking University


 
E-mail: zjeffery@263.net


 
Ionospheric disturbances have been widely studied using
dual-frequency GPS receivers. With the method a lot of results have
been obtained in recent years. It is known that large solar flare can
cause an ionospheric TEC enhancement, but the relation between them has
not been fully established. Besides, since compared with the background
TEC, the increase due to flare effect in general takes only a small
percentage, there need a proper method to distinguish the effect. In
this paper, a method is put forward to minimize the effect of noises so
that small TEC changes caused by flares can be recognized( to a certain
degree). Using data from 4 dual-frequency GPS receivers distributed
over China, the temporal TEC variations of the ionosphere during the
solar flare occurred on Nov 22, 1998 are calculated. The X-ray level of
the flare is X3.7. The results indicate that an obvious TEC
enhancements in the ionosphere does occur during the flare, the largest
value of the TEC enhancement caused by this flare is about 1.25 TECU.
Discussions on the features and validity of this method in studying
such ionospheric disturbances are made in some detail in the end of
this paper. It is concluded that this method has advantages over some
traditional methods in the study of the ionospheric disturbances caused
by solar flares and it can be used in analyzing the global ionospheric
disturbance evolution using the data from GPS receivers scattered all
over the world.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P17

 
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING OF THE FORMATION OF
POLAR CAP PATCHES

 
C. E. VALLADARES (1) and T. Pedersen (2)

 
(1) Institute for Scientific Research, Boston College

(2) VSBI, Air Force Research Laboratory


 
E-mail: cesar@dL5000.bc.edu


 
Two campaigns aimed to measure plasma densities and
electric fields in the regions where polar cap patches are formed were
conducted at very high latitudes. The first campaign was performed on
February 1996 and included simultaneous operations of the Sondrestrom
and the EISCAT incoherent scatter radars. The second campaign was
carried out on January 1999 and comprised the Sondrestrom and Svalbard
radars. On both occasions the SuperDARN network of coherent radars
observed the convection pattern in a large part of the auroral oval
polar cap region. During the first campaign two different types of
events were seen. In both events the Sondrestrom radar registered the
formation and evolution of large-scale density structures. The first
event consisted of the passage of traveling convection vortices, and
the other event occurred in association with the development of large
plasma jets (LPJ) embedded in the sunward convection part of the dusk
cell. It was observed that on both types of events a section of the
plasma density was eroded by a factor of 2. The measurements suggest
that the number density reduction is caused by an enhancement in the
O^+ recombination due to en elevated Ti which was produced by the much
higher frictional heating inside the vortices or within the plasma
jets. The data also provide evidence for abrupt changes in the location
of the LPJ that creates regions containing dayside plasma almost
detached from the rest of the oval density. Numerical simulations of
the role of LPJ on producing density depletions indicate that transport
of low-density plasma from earlier (or much later) local times can
contribute to `60 % of the depletion.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P18

 
AURORAL ZONE GPS TEC MEASUREMENTS AND IONOSPHERIC
BACKSCATTER FROM SUPERDARN

 
P. PRIKRYL (1), H. G. James (1), S. Skone (2), and D.
Andre (3)

 
(1) Communications Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada

(2) Dept.~of Geomatics Engineering, University of
Calgary

(3) ISAS, University of Saskatchewan


 
E-mail: prikryl@cancrc.dgrc.crc.ca


 
The dispersive and highly structured ionosphere can
limit the accuracy of positions determined by Global Positioning System
(GPS) satellite navigation systems and even result in a loss of carrier
lock and intermittent GPS receiver operation. The auroral ionosphere is
subject to space weather which can cause significant spatial and
temporal variations of electron density and density gradients resulting
in highly variable total electron content (TEC) and radio
scintillation. Remote sensing of the ionospheric irregularities and
their drift motions by SuperDARN provides maps of ionospheric HF
backcatter. The ionospheric structure is thus characterized near the
GPS line-of-sight ionospheric pierce point for GPS ground receivers
measuring TEC. Some preliminary results from analysis of the two kind
of data collected during a storm event will be presented.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P19

 
SPACE WEATHER PRODUCTS FROM SUPERDARN

 
R. A. GREENWALD, R. Barnes, J. M. Ruohoniemi, and S.
Shepherd

 
Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory


 
E-mail: ray.greenwald@jhuapl.edu


 
SuperDARN provides near-continuous radar coverage of
much of the high-latitude ionosphere and offers an excellent means of
monitoring the auroral zone and polar cap. For the past two years, data
from the northern-hemisphere radars of this network have been used to
provide global views of high-latitude plasma convection as well as
real-time determinations of the polar-cap potential drop. The
quantities have appeared on the JHU/APL SuperDARN web site in near
real-time and with two-minute temporal resolution. In this
presentation, we consider other space-weather parameters that might be
defined from the SuperDARN observations. In particular, recent studies
have indicated that the equatorward boundary of backscatter observed
with the radars is closely associated with the equatorward boundary of
auroral precipitation. This boundary can also be associated with the
equatorward boundary of high-latitude radar clutter and the equatorward
boundary of the high-latitude scintillation zone. The flow reversal
boundary in the convection maps is closely related to the poleward
boundary of auroral precipitation (effectively the polar cap boundary).
Thus, the SuperDARN radars provide a continuous identification of both
the auroral zone and polar cap, in addition to a determination of the
convection pattern. Using the SuperDARN receivers as riometers and
combining data from them with data from high-latitude riometer
networks, we have found that we can provide a global specification of
the structure and dynamics of high-latitude absorption. Finally,
intercomparison of the operating frequencies and backscatter
characteristics of the various radars provides a real-time diagnostic
of high-latitude propagation conditions. In this presentation, we will
present examples of these various capabilities.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P20

 
STATISTICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE SATURATION EFFECT IN
THE
IONOSPHERIC FOF_2 VERSUS SUNSPOTS, SOLAR RADIO NOISE, AND
SOLAR
EUV

 
J. Y. LIU (1) and Y. I. Chen (2)

 
(1) Institute of Space Science, National Central
University

(2) Institute of Statistics, National Central University


 
E-mail: jyliu@jupiter.ss.ncu.edu.tw


 
This study explores the possible saturation effects in
the ionospheric foF_2 due to smoothed sunspot number R12, smoothed
solar radio noise (10.7 cm) flux F(10.7), and smoothed solar EUV. To
locate the R12, F(10.7) or EUV value at which the foF_2 values are
saturated, a two-segmented regression model is built based on the data
of the strictly rise period of the 21st solar cycle recorded by eight
ionosonde stations scattering roughly between 40^\circN and 40^\circS
geomagnetic latitude. The regression model is then fitted into the
foF_2 data observed at Chung-Li station to investigate the hourly
variation of the saturation effect. To check the solar cycle variation
of the saturation effect, the same model is further built based on the
foF_2 data observed at Chung-Li station in the rise period of the 22nd
solar cycle. Results show that clear saturation features appear around
the equatorial anomaly crest region.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P21

 
CONTINUOUS MONITORING AND FORECASTING OF SPACE WEATHER
BY USING ON-LINE COSMIC RAY DATA FROM THE WORLD NETWORK OF STATIONS

 
L. I. DORMAN (1,2), N. Iucci (3), and G. Villoresi (4)

 
(1) Israel Cosmic Ray Center and Emilio Segre
Observatory, affiliated to Tel Aviv University, Technion and Israel
Space Agency

(2) Cosmic Ray Department of IZMIRAN, Troitsk, Moscow
reg.

(3) Terza Universita di Roma, Dipartimento di Fisica
``E. Amaldi"

(4) IFSI/CNR c/o Terza Universita di Roma, Dipartimento
di Fisica ``E. Amaldi"


 
E-mail: lid@physics.technion.ac.il, lid1@ccsg.tau.ac.il,
icrc@ccsg.tau.ac.il


 
The main idea of International Cosmic Ray Service (ICRS)
is to use on-line cosmic ray data from many stations of the existing
world-wide network. In many investigations of historical events it was
shown that by cosmic rays it is possible to obtain very important
information on the space weather and dynamic processes in the
Heliosphere. Moreover, we show that ground-based cosmic ray data
(exchanged in real time in the frame of ICRS), can be effectively used
for obtaining continuous information on the electromagnetic and
radiation situation in the interplanetary space and in the Earth's
magnetosphere, for forecasting of great geomagnetic storms associated
with Forbush-decreases, for prediction of big increases of radiation
hazard and other dangerous phenomena. We show that ICRS can predict
also extremely big increases of radiation hazards very dangerous for
the Earth's civilization due to extremely powerful solar flares and
local supernova explosions. In the frame of ICRS, after some additional
investigations of high energy cosmic-ray distribution function outside
the Heliosphere, it could be possible in future to solve more
complicated problems: to determine in combination with astrophysical
methods the location and velocity of nearest dust-molecular galactic
clouds with frozen-in magnetic fields and predict the expected time of
the Sun capturing by some clouds with possible great global changes of
Earth's climate.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P22

 
SPACE WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE EARTH: INCREASING OF THE
FREQUENCY OF MYOCARDIAL INFARCTIONS, BRAIN STROKES AND
TRAFFIC
ACCIDENTS IN MOSCOW AND IN ST.~PETERSBURG IN
PERIODS OF SPACE
MAGNETIC STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COSMIC
RAY FORBUSH-DECREASES

 
L. I. DORMAN (1,2), N. Iucci (3), N. G. Ptitsyna (4),
and G. Villoresi(5)

 
(1) Israel Cosmic Ray Center and Emilio Segre
Observatory, affiliated to Tel Aviv University, Technion and Isael
Space

(2) Cosmic Ray Department of IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of
Sciences

(3) Terza Universita di Roma, Dipartimento di Fisica
``E. Amaldi"

(4) SpbFilial of IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Sciences

(5) IFSI/CNR c/o Terza Universita di Roma, Dipartimento
di Fisica ``E. Amaldi"


 
E-mail: lid@physics.technion.ac.il, lid1@ccsg.tau.ac.il,
icrc@ccsg.tau.ac.il


 
On the basis of a great amount of medical information
obtained in Moscow and St. Petersburg we show that cosmic ray
Forbush-decreases can be considered as important indicators of space
weather dangerous phenomena regarding their impact on the Earth. We
analyzed 6304000 ambulance cases in Moscow for 1979-1981 (among them
85819 myocardial infarctions and 98625 brain strokes), 1314200
ambulance cases in St. Petersburg for 1981 (among them 14248 myocardial
infarctions), 17005 heavy traffic accident cases in St. Petersburg for
1987-1989, and 15543 myocardial infarctions in hospitals of St.
Petersburg in 1989-1990. We found that, regarding terrestrial impacts,
it is important only the decreasing phase of cosmic ray
Forbush-decreases (one-two days after the sudden commencement of
geomagnetic storm). In these periods the frequency of myocardial
infarctions increased in average by 12.5 \pm 1.5 % in Moscow and by
14.0 \pm 5.5 % in St.~Petersburg, the frequency of brain strokes
increased by 7.0 \pm 1.7 % in Moscow and frequency of traffic accidents
(with emergency service) increased by 17.4 \pm 3.1 % in St.~Petersburg.
The forecasting of space phenomena causing terrestrial impacts and
cosmic ray Forbush-decreases can be done by on-line data, precursory
effects, changes in the 3-D cosmic ray anisotropy and changes in the
cosmic ray spectrum of scintillations before the sudden commencement of
geomagnetic storm.


------------------------------------------------
S2-P23

 
LIGHTNING -- AN INDEX OF SPACE WEATHER DIAGNOSTICS

 
R. N. SINGH

 
Emeritus Fellow, C.S.J.M. University, Kanpur-208016
India


 
E-mail: vinodks@iitk.ac.in


 
Solar radiations play an important role in controlling
the space weather. The cloud formation, their movements and charge
separation are known to result into lighting phenomena. The lighting
phenomena has played a dominant role in the diagnostics of earth's
lower and upper atmosphere. Initially the phenomena of lighting was
thought to be arising from lower lying clouds which is known to move
upwards as well as downwards. However, the diagnostic measurements were
primarily confined to lighting radiations from cloud-to-ground (CG)
discharges. In recent years, extensive study of lighting generated
electromagnetic waves and their propagation have been carried out. It
is now established that CG and cloud-to-cloud (CC) lighting discharges
depict almost equal probability despite their dominantly different
radiated electromagnetic wave power and associated polar distribution
in space. The EM-waves propagate upwards undergoing multiple
reflections between earth-ionosphere wave guide. The higher frequency
components propagate outward and are monitored by space-borne devices.
The variational features of CG and CC discharges are known to provide
important details of ionized regions. Some of these details are being
worked. However, it seems that we have spent more time in projecting
nomenclature of some of these phenomena and the in-depth study of
electromagnetic radiations and their propagation features are not yet
fully developed. Some of these features are developed and discussed in
detail.